By Polycarp Gbaja
On June 12th, JNIM — Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, al-Qaeda’s West African affiliate — announced it had taken control of a Beninese military post in Basso, a town disturbingly close to Nigeria’s border. While some may dismiss this as just another skirmish in the Sahel’s long-burning fire, the implications are far more urgent and dangerous. This is not a distant warning. This is a knock on Nigeria’s northern gates — loud, clear, and deliberate.
Just 15 kilometers from Nigeria’s Babana, Basso is perilously close to Kainji National Park, a vast and under-policed expanse that includes one of the country’s most critical assets — the Kainji Dam. This dam isn’t just another piece of infrastructure; it powers our homes, waters our farmlands, and symbolizes the very backbone of national productivity. That JNIM is now operating this close to such a vital national asset should alarm anyone paying attention.
It is no coincidence. This is a strategic movement — and Kainji, with its energy and irrigation capabilities, is the ultimate prize. Yet, as has become worryingly routine, Nigeria’s security response seems reactive at best, and dangerously negligent at worst.
We have been here before. The Abuja-Kaduna train bombing of 2022 was not a surprise. It was forewarned as early as September 2021 by credible security alerts, notably from NSCDC in a leaked internal memo.. For months, the warning signs piled up: intelligence on militant movements, warnings about soft infrastructure targets, and the convergence of terror groups in the region. Nothing meaningful was done. The train was attacked. Nigerians were killed and kidnapped.
Are we really going to let that mistake repeat itself?
The resurgence of JNIM and its growing confidence must be met with more than condemnation or press statements.
Nigeria has the capacity — militarily and economically — to be proactive. We do not need more tragic hindsight. What we need is preemptive strategy. Surveillance, border fortification, counter-intelligence operations, rapid response deployment, and international coordination must now be top priorities. We need strong action — not after the fact, but before the next blow lands.
The idea that this is merely “banditry” or “spillover” is a dangerous simplification. These attacks are ideological, ethnoreligious, strategic, and well-funded. The perpetrators are organized. The funding channels are real. And the geopolitical agenda — the destabilization of Nigeria and its key assets — is clear.
This is not just a security threat; it is a national development threat, a food security threat, and an existential threat.
It is telling that even Nigeria’s National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, has admitted that instability from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso is now seeping into Nigeria. The recent killings of 70 Beninese soldiers in April are not isolated events. They are the prelude to a wider war for influence and territory — one that Nigeria must never allow to reach full-scale within its borders.
Yet, we are distracted. The national budget and public discourse are more focused on megaprojects like coastal roads than securing our hinterlands and food-producing rural communities — the very areas now under siege. What good are coastal highways if the farmers who feed the nation cannot step into their fields without fear? What good is economic reform if millions are displaced and terrorized into silence and poverty?
Security must be the singular top priority — not because it’s politically expedient, but because it is existential. Without security, every other ambition — economic, social, political — will collapse like a house of cards.
It’s time to stop waiting for tragedy to justify action. Nigeria’s security leadership must act now — and they must act with clarity, urgency, and resolve. We have the intelligence. We have the means. What we seem to lack is the political will and coordination.
The Nigerian people are not asking for miracles. We are asking for responsibility. We are asking that those entrusted with our collective security take that mandate seriously — and act decisively, proactively, and transparently.
Our prayers must not be a substitute for action. They must accompany civic pressure and national demand. Let the President, Governors, National Assembly, and security institutions know that this is their first job. Not after a crisis, but before it.
Because if Kainji falls — literally or symbolically — it won’t just be a military loss. It will be a national catastrophe.
The time to act was yesterday. The second best time is today. Nigeria cannot afford to wait until tomorrow.
● Gbaja, a reverend gentleman and commentator on public affairs, lives in Abuja.
