By Paul Chinda
The tense appearance of Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara before the screening committee of the All Progressives Congress may ultimately be remembered as more than just another dramatic episode in the country’s increasingly turbulent political season.
When Fubara arrived at the Plateau Governor’s Lodge in Abuja for his long-awaited screening and then stormed out without speaking to journalists, political observers immediately sensed that something deeper was unfolding inside the ruling party.
His silence spoke loudly.
But another report suggests that he was actually screened and cleared per a source close to his cabinet. The next few days will, however, tell the full story.
The development has now intensified nationwide debate over the APC’s internal screening exercise ahead of the 2027 general elections – a process many analysts say is already revealing the party’s internal contradictions, elite rivalries and growing struggle to balance political expansion with internal stability.
The APC screening committee, chaired by Nentawe Yilwatda, was constituted to vet governors seeking second terms, senatorial aspirants and governorship hopefuls ahead of the party’s primaries.
But across the country, the exercise has evolved beyond routine administrative checks.
Instead, it has become a battleground for power blocs, defectors, incumbents and competing political interests.
Fubara and the Rivers Question
The Rivers governor’s screening appearance came after he failed to attend the exercise on the officially scheduled day, prompting speculation about possible disagreements within the party.
Although APC officials insisted his absence was due to official engagements and would be accommodated within the screening window, Sunday’s events only deepened suspicions of unresolved tensions surrounding his political future.
Fubara’s political crisis remains tied to his prolonged feud with his predecessor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.
The battle between both camps has become one of the most consequential political conflicts in contemporary Nigerian politics.
At stake are:
• control of Rivers State’s political machinery,
• influence over state resources,
• and the governorship succession structure ahead of 2027.
Several reconciliation meetings reportedly involving President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and other stakeholders have failed to produce lasting peace between the two camps.
Wike has repeatedly signalled opposition to Fubara’s second-term ambition, despite growing speculation that the Rivers governor’s alignment with APC structures could improve his political chances.
Watchers believe Fubara’s visibly tense demeanor during the screening exercise reflected the uncertainty surrounding his standing within the ruling party.
His refusal to address reporters after the screening was widely interpreted as evidence that negotiations over his political future may still be ongoing.
APC’s Expansion Problem
The Rivers crisis also reflects the larger national issue confronting the APC.
Since assuming power at the centre, the ruling party has aggressively expanded by attracting governors, lawmakers and influential politicians from rival parties.
That strategy has strengthened the APC nationally but also created dangerous internal tensions.
Across several states, long-standing APC loyalists now find themselves competing against powerful defectors who arrive with existing political structures and influence.
The result is growing resentment within the party.
The central dilemma confronting APC leaders is increasingly clear: Should defectors automatically dominate party structures because they control state power and electoral machinery?
That question now hangs over multiple states beyond Rivers.
States Facing Internal APC Tensions
The APC screening exercise has exposed varying levels of political stability across the federation.
In states such as Sokoto, Cross River and Niger, incumbent governors appear relatively secure within party structures.
Governors including Ahmed Aliyu, Bassey Otu and Umar Bago are widely expected to secure party backing with minimal resistance.
However, the situation is markedly different in politically volatile states such as:
• Rivers,
• Kano,
• Benue,
• Zamfara,
• and parts of the North-Central.
In these states, screening committees are effectively functioning as conflict-management panels rather than mere verification bodies.
The APC leadership is believed to be attempting to avoid divisive primaries capable of weakening the party ahead of the national elections.
Screening as Political Negotiation
Although APC National Secretary Ajibola Basiru stated that appearing before the committee did not amount to automatic clearance, his remarks have further fueled speculation that the process involves more political bargaining than public officials admit.
Observers note that in Nigerian politics, screening exercises often serve multiple hidden purposes:
• testing loyalty,
• negotiating consensus arrangements,
• balancing competing interests,
• and determining which aspirants align with broader party strategies.
For many political insiders, the real decisions are frequently made before delegates ever vote during primaries.
Rise of a “National Absorption Machine”
Many argue that the APC is increasingly transforming into what some describe as a “national absorption machine” – a dominant platform focused less on ideology and more on consolidating elite political interests across Nigeria.
The party’s growing influence has weakened opposition parties but simultaneously intensified internal contradictions.
Many politicians defecting into the APC are former rivals who once fiercely criticised the ruling party.
Now, they seek accommodation within the same structure.
This dynamic has complicated the party’s internal balance.
The emergence of multiple power centres inside APC-controlled states means screening exercises now carry enormous political consequences.
A poor handling of the process could trigger:
• defections,
• lawsuits,
• parallel candidates,
• or sabotage during elections.
Conversely, a successful management of the screening process could position the APC for another dominant outing in 2027.
Why Rivers Matters Nationally
Among all the states under focus, Rivers remains perhaps the most strategically important.
As one of Nigeria’s richest oil-producing states, Rivers carries enormous electoral and financial significance.
Control of the state has implications far beyond local politics.
For President Tinubu and APC strategists, maintaining stability in Rivers is considered essential to the party’s South-South calculations ahead of 2027.
But the unresolved conflict between Wike and Fubara continues to complicate that objective.
The key question remains unanswered:
Can Fubara politically survive if Wike remains opposed to his second-term ambition?
That question now transcends Rivers State.
It speaks directly to a larger national struggle between incumbent governors seeking political independence and powerful political godfathers determined to retain control over state structures.
Primaries May Decide 2027
Watchers increasingly argue that the APC’s internal processes may determine the outcome of the 2027 elections long before Nigerians cast their votes.
In the country’s political system, party primaries often matter more than the general election itself because:
• governors heavily influence delegates,
• incumbents dominate party structures,
• and federal power frequently shapes internal party outcomes.
The ongoing screening exercise therefore represents more than a procedural event.
It is an early test of APC’s ability to manage ambition, defections, rivalries and elite expectations within a rapidly expanding political coalition.
For now, Fubara’s brief but dramatic appearance before the screening panel has become the most visible symbol of those tensions.
His silence may ultimately prove to be one of the loudest political statements of the season.