{"id":15188,"date":"2019-02-10T02:40:47","date_gmt":"2019-02-10T02:40:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/?p=15188"},"modified":"2019-02-10T02:40:47","modified_gmt":"2019-02-10T02:40:47","slug":"nigerias-brutal-decision-former-dictator-or-alleged-kleptocrat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/?p=15188","title":{"rendered":"Nigeria\u2019s Brutal Decision: Former Dictator or Alleged Kleptocrat"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u25aa Voters need to choose between a pair of uninspiring presidential candidates, neither offering a fix for its struggling economy.<\/strong>
\nBy\u00a0Paul Wallace<\/strong>
\nWhat\u2019s a Nigerian citizen to do when there\u2019s a presidential election coming up and the two leading candidates are a former dictator who\u2019s presided over four years of lackluster growth and an alleged kleptocrat of international repute?
\nThis is the choice facing Africa\u2019s largest oil producer, and by some measures its largest economy, in the Feb. 16 vote. Although the field is crowded, incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, 76, faces his strongest challenge from Atiku Abubakar, 72, who served as vice president from 1999 to 2007 and has tried and failed several times already to secure the top job.
\nBuhari, who led Nigeria briefly in the 1980s as a dictator, came back to power four years ago via the ballot box. After military rule ended in 1999, he contested several elections unsuccessfully before finally becoming the first opposition figure to win the presidency. (He describes himself as a \u201cconverted democrat.\u201d) Voters and pundits alike were optimistic that he could diversify the oil-dependent economy, tackle graft, and end Boko Haram\u2019s\u00a0deadly insurgency. While the stern former general has succeeded in stamping out some of the corruption that\u2019s long blighted Nigeria, critics say he\u2019s been selective, mostly targeting his political opponents. They also say he\u2019s failed on other issues, nicknaming him \u201cBaba Go-Slow\u201d in reference to his age and sluggish response to crises.
\nNigeria\u2019s economy is still smaller on a per capita basis than it was in 2014, when it was hammered by the crash in crude prices. Unemployment has surged to a record 23 percent from 6.4 percent at the end of 2014. The stock market has been the world\u2019s worst performer since Buhari came to office, falling more than 50 percent in dollar terms. Boko Haram militants, some affiliated with Islamic State, continue to wreak havoc in the northeast. Other parts of the country have been roiled by a conflict between farmers and herders that\u2019s led to thousands of deaths.
\nAbubakar, widely known as Atiku, is a father of 26 who has business interests ranging from oil and gas services to food manufacturing. He\u2019s pledged to loosen the state\u2019s grip on the economy, end the naira\u2019s peg to the dollar, and privatize companies including the\u00a0Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., which dominates the local energy industry. But for all his market-friendly talk\u2014he admires the late Conservative U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher\u2014many Nigerians think he used his past positions in government to enrich himself.
\n\u201cIt\u2019s like a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea,\u201d says Andrew Niagwan, 36, a teacher in the central city of Jos who doesn\u2019t know if he\u2019ll vote. \u201cBuhari\u2019s got good intentions, but he doesn\u2019t seem very capable. Our living standards have dropped in recent years. As for Atiku, Nigerians are wary because of all the allegations surrounding him.\u201d
\nA\u00a0U.S. Senate report\u00a0in 2010 concluded that Abubakar and one of his wives had wired $40 million of \u201csuspect funds\u201d into American accounts and said that his business dealings \u201craise a host of questions about the nature and source\u201d of his wealth. Although he has denied the claims and has never been indicted at home or abroad, Abubakar hasn\u2019t been able to shake the perception of impropriety. In January he met with lawmakers in Washington after having been banned from the country for more than a decade under a\u00a0State Department\u00a0edict against politicians linked to foreign corruption, according to former U.S. officials. (A spokesperson for Abubakar\u2019s campaign denies he\u2019d been banned from the U.S., and the State Department declined to comment on the visit.)
\nInvestors expect Nigerian assets to rise if Abubakar wins. \u201cAs much as Buhari has done in terms of tackling corruption, under his guidance the economy has been quite stagnant,\u201d says Christopher Dielmann, an economist at\u00a0Exotix Capital\u00a0in London. \u201cThe perception is that, under Atiku, a degree of corruption could return to the country, but that might bring with it higher economic growth.\u201d
\nStill, any bounce could be short-lived. Abubakar may not risk the political fallout from trying to sell state assets or, as he\u2019s also promised, removing a cap that keeps Nigeria\u2019s gasoline prices among the cheapest in the world.
\n\u201cI\u2019m doubtful there\u2019d be any great change with the economy, no matter who gets elected,\u201d says John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria who\u2019s now a senior fellow at the\u00a0Council on Foreign Relations\u00a0in Washington. That\u2019s a major problem, he says, as the United Nations projects Nigeria\u2019s population will double, to 410 million, by 2050. \u201cHow on Earth can you grow an economy fast enough to accommodate those numbers?\u201d
\nNew York-based risk consultant\u00a0Eurasia Group, which included Nigeria on its list of the\u00a0top 10 global risks for 2019, predicts Buhari will be reelected. But even if steadier oil prices mean the worst is over, it won\u2019t be an easy four years. \u201cThe country might just muddle through for now,\u201d says Amaka Anku, head of Africa at Eurasia. The next election, in 2023, could be an inflection point, she says. \u201cThere\u2019s a real chance that a reformist government emerges then.\u201d\u00a0\u2014With Tope Alake
\nBOTTOM LINE –\u00a0No matter who wins Nigeria\u2019s presidential election, the economy is unlikely to improve, setting up the nation for a humanitarian catastrophe in the coming decades.
\nBy Bloomberg<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u25aa Voters need to choose between a pair of uninspiring presidential candidates, neither offering a fix for its struggling economy. By\u00a0Paul Wallace What\u2019s a Nigerian citizen to do when there\u2019s a presidential election coming up and the two leading candidates are a former dictator who\u2019s presided over four years of lackluster growth and an alleged […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":13154,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5777],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-features"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15188\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/everyday.ng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}