Nigeria Inflation Rate May Hit 30 Percent By Year End As September 2023 Records 26.72 Percent Increase
By Clement Nwoji (Optimum Times)
Barring no changes in current cost of socioeconomic living standards, Nigeria’s inflationary trend is gearing to hit 30 percent by end of 2023 as statistics for Consumers Price Index (CPI) for the month of September, 2023, showed an all time 26.72 percent high.
This contrasted with the rate in August, 2023 which was 25.80 percent, translating into an increase by 0.92 percent points.
The 30 percent projection is against the backdrop of end of year purchases and increase in prices of goods and services during Christmas and new year festive seasons.
Further, the tendency of hike in pump price of fuel or even scarcity of the product, which may push up cost of transportation services and its spillover effects in compounding general prices of goods services can also not be ruled out within the remaining months of the year.
The Statistician General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, disclosed this, Monday, while releasing the CPI statistics for the month of September, 2023.
He attributed the increase in inflation for the period under review to costs of items: Food and non-alcoholic Beverages (13.84%), Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & other Fuel (4.47%), Clothing & Footwear (2.04%), Transport (1.74%), Furnishings & Household Equipment and maintenance (1.34%), Education (1.05%) and Health (0.80%). Others are Miscellaneous Goods & Services (0.44%), Restaurants & Hotels (0.32%), Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Kola (0.29%), Recreation & Culture (0.18%) and Communication (0.18%).
According to Prince Adeniran, “The headline Inflation rate for September 2023, on a year-on-year basis, increased to 26.72% relative to the August 2023 headline inflation rate which was 25.80%. Looking at the headline trend, the September 2023 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.92% points when compared to the August 2023 headline inflation rate.
“Similarly, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.94% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022, which was (20.77%).
“The increase in the headline index for September 2023 was attributed to the increase in some items in the basket of goods and services at the divisional level.”
“These increases were observed in Food and non-alcoholic Beverages (13.84%), Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & other Fuel (4.47%), Clothing & Footwear (2.04%), Transport (1.74%), Furnishings & Household Equipment and maintenance (1.34%), Education (1.05%) and Health (0.80%). Others are Miscellaneous Goods & Services (0.44%), Restaurants & Hotels (0.32%), Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco & Kola (0.29%), Recreation & Culture (0.18%) and Communication (0.18%).
“Likewise, on a month-over-month basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2023 stood at 2.10%, which shows that the average price level decreased by 1.08% when compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 (3.18%).”
The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending September 2023 over the average of the CPI for the previous corresponding twelve-month period was 22.90%, showing a 5.47% increase compared to 17.43% recorded in September 2022.
Further analysis of the CPI trend showed that the Food sub-index for September 2023 increased to 30.64% on a year-on-year basis, which was 7.30% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022 (23.34%).
Adeniran explained that the rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was attributed to increases in prices of Oil & fat, Bread & cereals, Potatoes, Yam & other Tubers, Fish, Fruit, Meat, Vegetables and Milk, Cheese, and Eggs.
However, on a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.45%. This was 1.41% lower compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 (3.87%).
The decline in Food inflation was caused by a decrease in average prices of Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Bread and cereals, Fruits, and Fish.
“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending September 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 25.65%, which was 6.29% points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2022 (19.36%)”, he stated.
In the case of core inflation, which is All items less volatile farm produces and Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS), the Statistician General said that the exclusion of the PMS is due to the deregulation of the commodity by removal of subsidy.
According to him, “The core inflation rate stood at 21.84% in September 2023 on a year-on-year basis. This shows a rise of 4.35% when compared to the 17.49% recorded in September 2022.
“The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger Transport by Air, Passenger Transport by Road, Passenger Transport by Air, Medical Services, Maintenance, and repair of personal transport equipment.
“On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate in the same way also increased by 2.22% in September 2023. Which is up by 0.05% compared to 2.18% in August 2022.
“The average twelve-month annual inflation rate ending August 2023 over the previous twelve-month average stood at 19.55% in September 2023; this was 4.48% points higher than the 15.07% recorded in September 2022.”
Also, the Urban consumer’s inflation rate on a year-on-year basis stood at 28.68% for September 2023, showing a 7.43% point higher compared to the 21.25% recorded in the corresponding month in 2022.
On a month-on-month basis, the Urban inflation rate grew by 2.24% in September 2023, this shows an increase of 1.05% points lower compared to 3.29% in August 2023.
The twelve-month average annual inflation rate ending September 2023 over the previous corresponding twelve-month average, Urban inflation rate was 24.10%. This was 6.16% points higher compared to the 17.94% reported in September 2022.
The Rural consumer’s sub-index in September 2023 was 24.94% on a year-on-year basis; this was 4.62% higher compared to the 20.32% recorded in August 2022.
On a month-on-month basis, the Rural sub-index in August 2023 was 1.96%, which decreased by 1.12% points compared to August 2023 (3.08%).
The twelve-month average annual inflation rate ending September 2023 over the previous corresponding twelve-month average, Rural inflation rate was 21.79%. This was 4.85% higher compared to the 16.94% recorded in September 2022.
The analyses of the states show that the all-item index for September 2023, on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (32.95%), Rivers (30.63%), Lagos (30.04%), while Borno (21.05%), Jigawa (22.39%) and Benue (23.22%) recorded the slowest rise in headline inflation.
On a month-on-month basis, September 2023 recorded the highest increases in Taraba (3.39%), Bauchi (3.38%), Niger (3.28%), while Borno (0.71%), Ekiti (1.05%) and Benue (1.13%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.
State-level analyses of the food index in September 2023, on a year-on-year basis, showed the highest increases in Kogi (39.37%), Rivers (35.95%) and Lagos (35.66%), while Jigawa (23.41%), Borno (25.29%) and Sokoto (25.38%) recorded the slowest rise.
On a month-on-month basis, however, September 2023 Food inflation was highest in Akwa Ibom (4.23%), Niger (4.19%) and Ebonyi (3.74%), while Cross River (0.31%), Borno (0.62%) and Bayelsa (0.73%) recorded the slowest rise.
