Contrary to what the nay-sayers are trumpeting as preparations for the 2019 elections draw nearer, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released data showing that the economy is on an upward swing.
But the situation on ground remains dire for most Nigerians as price of the basic needs of food and shelter remain high and unaffordable.
According to the NBS, the economy further consolidated its recovery from recession with GDP growing by 1.92% in Q4 2016 compared to 1.40% in Q3 2017 and a contraction of -1.73% in Q4 2016
The NBS interpreted this to mean the economy ended 2017 with a growth of 0.82% compared to a contraction of -1.58% in 2016.
It states further:
- GDP Growth in Q4 2017 was driven by growth in crop production, crude production and natural gas, metal ores, construction, transportation and storage, trade, electricity and gas production.
- Crop production grew 4.58% in Q4 2017 compared to 3.19% in Q3 2017 and 4.36% in Q4 2016
- Crude Production grew 8.38% in Q4 2017 compared to 25.89% in Q3 2017 and a contraction of -17.70 in Q4 2016
- Metal Ore grew 31.86% in Q4 2017 compared to 10.70% in Q3 2017 and 7.03% in Q4 2016
- Construction grew 4.14% in Q4 2017 compared to a contraction of -0.46% in Q3 2017 and another contraction of -6.03% in Q4 2016, representing the strongest growth in construction since Q2 2015
- Transportation and storage grew 16.57% in Q4 2017 compared to -6.25% in Q3 2017 and -5.32% in Q4 2016
- Trade, after 6 quarters of negative growth grew 2.07% in Q4 2017
- Electricity and gas production grew 16.03% in Q4 2017 compared to 11.46% in Q3 2017 and a contraction of -5.16% in Q4 2016
- Non Oil GDP grew by 1.45% in Q4 2017(strongest growth since 2015) compared to a contraction of -0.76 in Q3 2017 and -0.33% in Q4 2016
- Industry grew for the third consecutive quarter (following 8 quarters of negative growth) by 3.92% in Q4 2017 compared to 8.83% in Q3 2017 and a contraction of -8.73% in Q4 2016
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Services finally got out of recession, growing positive for the first time since Q1 2016 by 0.10% in Q4 2017 compared to contractions of -2.66% in Q3 2017 and -1.52% in Q4 2016
| 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||
| SHARE OF GDP % | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total 2016 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year to Date |
| Q1-Q4 | ||||||||||
| AGRICULTURE | 20.48 | 22.55 | 28.65 | 25.49 | 24.43 | 21.43 | 22.93 | 29.15 | 26.18 | 25.08 |
| INDUSTRIES | 24.33 | 22.65 | 21.11 | 20.33 | 22.02 | 22.90 | 23.43 | 22.56 | 20.38 | 22.26 |
| SERVICES | 55.20 | 54.80 | 50.24 | 54.18 | 53.55 | 55.67 | 53.64 | 48.28 | 53.45 | 52.66 |
| REAL GROWTH RATE % | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total 2016 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year to Date |
| AGRICULTURE | 3.09 | 4.53 | 4.54 | 4.03 | 4.11 | 3.39 | 3.01 | 3.06 | 4.23 | 3.45 |
| of which crop production… | 3.02 | 4.72 | 4.88 | 4.36 | 4.34 | 3.50 | 3.21 | 3.19 | 4.58 | 3.64 |
| INDUSTRY | -6.68 | -7.19 | -12.66 | -8.73 | -8.85 | -5.83 | 2.17 | 8.83 | 3.92 | 2.19 |
| of which Metal ores… | 57.03 | 4.22 | 6.89 | 7.03 | 20.74 | 40.79 | -1.09 | 10.70 | 31.86 | 21.37 |
| of which Quarrying and Other Minerals… | -88.87 | 2.52 | 7.07 | 6.13 | -17.42 | 52.54 | 2.24 | 1.86 | -10.94 | -1.12 |
| of which Manufacturing… | -7.00 | -3.36 | -4.38 | -2.54 | -4.32 | 1.36 | 0.64 | -2.85 | 0.14 | -0.21 |
| SERVICES | 0.80 | -1.25 | -1.17 | -1.52 | -0.82 | -0.37 | -0.85 | -2.66 | 0.10 | -0.91 |
| of which Construction….. | -5.37 | -6.28 | -6.13 | -6.03 | -5.95 | 0.15 | 0.13 | -0.46 | 4.14 | 1.00 |
| of which Trade….. | 2.02 | -0.03 | -1.38 | -1.44 | -0.24 | -3.08 | -1.62 | -1.74 | 2.07 | -1.05 |
| of which Real Estate….. | -4.69 | -5.27 | -7.37 | -9.27 | -6.86 | -3.10 | -3.53 | -4.12 | -5.92 | -4.27 |
| of which Telecoms… | 5.00 | 1.49 | 0.95 | 1.03 | 2.03 | 2.89 | -1.92 | -5.68 | -3.28 | -2.04 |
| of which Financial Services… | -13.16 | -13.24 | 2.85 | 2.92 | -5.57 | 0.60 | 11.78 | -6.54 | 2.61 | 1.92 |
| REAL GROWTH RATE at basic | -0.67 | -1.49 | -2.34 | -1.73 | -1.58 | -0.91 | 0.72 | 1.40 | 1.92 | 0.83 |
| REAL GROWTH RATE at market price | -0.72 | -1.65 | -2.38 | -1.63 | -1.62 | -1.04 | 0.78 | 1.43 | 1.87 | 0.81 |
| Non Oil GDP | -0.18 | -0.38 | 0.03 | -0.33 | -0.22 | 0.72 | 0.45 | -0.76 | 1.45 | 0.47 |
| oil gdp | -4.81 | -11.63 | -23.04 | -17.70 | -14.45 | -15.60 | 3.53 | 25.89 | 8.38 | 4.79 |
